A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
